Analysts cast doubt on NT net zero target, with major gas projects set to vastly increase emissions

Climate scientists say there is no realistic pathway for the Northern Territory to meet its 2050 net zero emissions commitment, as the NT government continues to sit on a major report detailing how high those emissions are forecast to rise.

Despite the warnings, and the NT government's major expansion of the local gas industry, new Chief Minister Eva Lawler says the territory was "absolutely" on track to meet it's 2050 target.

"It's some hard work we'll need to do to get to that target ... we will continue to work hard to achieve that," Ms Lawler said at a recent press conference.

But given the scale of the gas projects in the Beetaloo Basin, Middle Arm industrial precinct and the Barossa gas field, analysts have told the ABC  the government cannot lower the Northern Territory's emissions bill.

Early last year, a report backed by the CSIRO stated the Beetaloo Basin could be developed without adding to Australia's net emissions.

However, Bill Hare, a climate scientist and chief executive of Climate Analytics, said the report, and the gas industry, had "substantially underestimated" the likely emissions that would arise. 

"For the Barossa, because it's moving to a very carbon intensive gas field, we are looking at about 3.3 million tonnes a year from the project," Mr Hare said.

"For the Beetaloo Basin [and Middle Arm], it depends on the scale at which it's developed, but anything between nine and 49 million tonnes a year."

At its highest end, he said, that equated to 1.3 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions emitted over a 25-year period to 2050.

"It's an absolutely staggering increase at the very moment in which we should be reducing emissions," Mr Hare said.

"Depending upon the scale of the development, the NT's emissions would be increased by 75 to 360 per cent [a year]."

The NT currently contributes just 3 per cent of Australia's total emissions — 15.8 million tonnes in 2021.

Nearly half of those emissions came from the NT's two liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, the Inpex and Darwin LNG facilities, which export gas mainly to Japan. 

With new gas projects in development, Mr Hare said the Northern Territory's national emissions share was expected to grow from 3 per cent to about 15 per cent a year.

This, he said, would create significant problems for the country's legislated net zero target by 2050 and a 43 per cent emissions reduction target by 2030.

Questions around unreleased emissions report

A detailed analysis of the NT's projected emissions, commissioned by the government, was due to be released in 2021, and delayed in 2022 and again in 2023.

A government spokesperson last year told the ABC the finalised report had been handed in and would be "released in the coming months".

But this year, new Environment Minister Kate Worden said the public may never see it. 

Ms Worden refuted claims the government was sitting on the report because it would show the NT had no pathway to its 2050 target.

"I don't accept the premise that we're hiding a report … the media can ask for a report to be public. It's government's decision about whether the reports are made public," she said.

"At the moment, government will be considering it for its own purposes, and sometime, perhaps in the future, that might might be made public."

Mr Hare, however, said the situation raised concerns.

"One of the big issues that I see in the Northern Territory is the failure to release projections of greenhouse gas emissions," Mr Hare said.

"This is fairly standard for governments all around the world and it's under the obligations of state parties under the climate change convention, the Paris Agreement.

"Without transparency, it has to be assumed that the government has something to hide."

Dr Jennifer Rayner, the head of advocacy at the Climate Council, said projection reports were essential for public understanding of the government's plans and progress in reaching its targets. 

"If we don't even know the scope of the problem, we can't make real plans to fix it," Dr Rayner said.

Mark Ogge, the principal researcher at the Australia Institute, noted the NT was the world leader of carbon emissions per capita — a lead set to significantly increase in the coming years if current projections bear out.

Currently, the Northern Territory and Western Australia were the only two jurisdictions where emissions were higher now than in 2005.

The federal government has committed to reduce emissions by 43 per cent by 2030, and the NT and WA were the only jurisdictions that had not set whole-of-economy emissions targets for 2030.

Global climate scientists agree that global warning needed to be limited to 1.5C degrees before extinctions were forecast to rise steeply, coral diversity shrink by 90 per cent or more, and extreme weather events — droughts, floods, cyclones, bushfires — intensify in parts of the world.

"In order to get onto a 1.5C pathway, emissions need to be reduced globally by about 45 per cent by 2030," Mr Hare said.

"In this context 2030, goals are really critical because they are within the time frame of present government perspectives and governments can be held accountable for their achievement."

Environment Minister Kate Worden said the NT had set smaller targets for 2030, including transitioning to 50 per cent renewable energy and a 47 per cent reduction in government operations – which included hospitals and schools.

She said more targets could be expected to be set in the future. 

"We need to get that balance really right around jobs for Territorians, but also protecting our environment," she said.

"We've done that through re-establishing the office of climate change. We've got that target to 2050 and we do have those interim 2030 targets."