AnalysisRebuilding WA's opposition, Voice referendum to take centre stage at WA Nationals conference
By Keane BourkePolitical party conferences, where the nitty-gritty of internal machinations are fleshed out, are usually about as interesting as you'd expect.
But this weekend's gathering of National Party members in Western Australia might just buck that trend.
As nerves about the next state election begin to grow, the major opposition party is facing difficult choices on a number of fronts.
After lending early support to the Voice referendum, it's now having to grapple with growing resistance in the regions.
Tough decisions will need to be made about how to manage controversial electoral reforms after nearly two years of rumination.
And the deadline to pick a position on partnering with the Liberals for the 2025 campaign is fast approaching.
Leader open to change
Speaking ahead of the party's annual conference, WA Opposition Leader Shane Love wasn't shying away from the significance of the event.
"There certainly is a view that we have to do things a little differently now if we're to survive," he said.
"And one thing the National Party has done over the years has been to survive a number of hurdles, where newspapers and radio commentators and television journalists, et cetera have all said that the National Party is heading for extinction.
"But here we are, we're still seen to survive and find a way [of] understanding the electorate and getting support from the electorate and continuing to exist [for] well over 100 years now."
Voice takes centre stage
The topic of discussion likely to generate the biggest immediate headlines will be around the party's stance on the Voice to Parliament.
Less than a year ago, then-leader Mia Davies broke ranks with her federal colleagues to commit the WA Nationals to supporting the initiative.
But a lot has changed since then and the proposal is seen to be struggling to gain favour among the party's core base.
It's something Mr Love seems to have been conscious of since taking up the party's leadership, only committing to support the position adopted by rank-and-file members without Ms Davies's enthusiasm for the Voice.
Those members will have the chance to vote on that on Saturday – potentially following Liberal leader Libby Mettam in also walking back their support for the representative body.
"That of course will be, I think, debate which will have passionate speakers on both sides," Mr Love said.
"And it'll be interesting to see the outcome of that and see where the party as a whole lands on that issue."
Regardless of the party's official stance though, MPs will still be able to speak their own minds on the proposal.
Voting reforms a key concern
Conversations around how to respond to major upper house voting reforms are also expected to prompt robust debate.
Those reforms, passed in 2021, remove the six electorates from which upper house MPs are currently elected, replacing them with one state-wide electorate.
Moving to the "one vote, one value" system means the Nationals stand to go from four or five Legislative Council members to as few as one.
The party has a few options to try and change that, including to stretch its legs away from its traditional country base and start to develop more of a presence in metropolitan areas.
Even among its own MPs though, the idea isn't universally supported.
But it's being put forward in case the elephant in the room – and the one key problem that won't formally be debated – doesn't go to plan.
That problem is how exactly to work with the Liberal Party.
Both were significantly wounded in the 2021 bloodbath, but the Nationals slightly less so, giving them the upper hand in negotiations about the next election.
Nationals hold bargaining chip
Having clung onto more seats than the Liberals in the lower house, Mr Love holds the key bargaining chip – the mantle of opposition leader and the authority and resources which comes with it.
In his wildest dreams, he might find a way to hold onto that title beyond the next election when the Liberals will almost certainly return to being the dominant opposition party.
But those upper house reforms mean that's almost entirely out the window because of the need to find a way to avoid losing so many seats in the Council.
"The challenge for the Nationals is to use their very good bargaining position to get the maximum result, and the maximum result for them is some winnable seats on a joint upper house ticket with the Liberals," was the view of veteran political commentator Peter Kennedy.
Party to work closely with Liberals
That upper house ticket is set to be the sticking point of any change to the Liberal-National relationship.
Almost every other part of a proposal recently put forward by the Nationals was uncontroversial, or even expected.
Mr Love would give up the title of opposition leader, both sides would agree not to waste resources fighting each other in certain seats and they'd set up internal processes to work more closely on their campaigns.
In exchange, both would run on a joint ticket in the upper house, with the Nationals taking every third spot.
People on both sides have accepted that would mean the Liberals would get eight seats and the Nationals four on a realistic forecast of the next election.
That would keep the Nationals largely on par with how they'd fared in the upper house for the last few elections.
And while incumbent Liberals would likely be safe, they fear it could mean up-and-coming candidates miss out to give a Nationals member a chance.
Labor Party 'the common foe': analyst
Both sides want to find a solution the other will be happy with, but that's easier said than done.
But Mr Kennedy said they'll need to find a way to make it happen or risk taking each other out in the process.
"In the past, they've sometimes wasted a huge amount of resources fighting each other in some seats, but next time around, they won't be able to afford to do that," he said.
"Because the common foe is the Labor Party.
"If they don't acknowledge that, the Liberals and the Nationals won't make progress."
But at the same time, neither will want to feel short-changed by any agreement they hash out.
Saturday's Nationals WA gathering will be an important opportunity for those in the party who believe in the partnership to convince rank-and-file members of the need to work together.
Only then will they be able to try and convince the Liberals it's in their best interests too.