AnalysisMark McGowan's retirement presents opportunities for the Opposition. Can they make the most of them?
By Keane BourkeFor so long WA politics has been dominated by "the McGowan factor".
One man was so influential within his party, across government and in the mind of the public, little could get in his way.
Even at a federal level, Mark McGowan's dominance is often credited with delivering Anthony Albanese his job as PM, such was his influence over the successes of the four extra seats Labor picked up in the west.
Having already led a decisive result in 2017, McGowan steamrolled his way over the opposition on the way to an historic obliteration in 2021, claiming all but six seats in the state's lower house.
Such was the degree of decimation that the Liberals even lost the mantle of major opposition party, having to hand the reigns over to the Nationals.
And it didn't take long for the next poll — even though it was four years away — to be written off for the Liberals.
The McGowan effect
Can one man's resignation change that?
"The chances of the Liberals and Nationals winning the next election were always remote, and probably remain remote," ABC chief election analyst Antony Green said this week.
"But the internal dispute that arose over who should replace Mark McGowan gives a hint that there are tensions within the Labor Party, which is something that the opposition can work on in the run-up to the next election."
Those internal fractures played out very publicly the day after McGowan's resignation, when Health Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson declared she had the "clear" backing of one of the major unions behind the Labor Party and its powerful Left faction — the United Workers Union.
But within hours, her plans had fallen apart.
Deputy Premier Roger Cook secured the support of both the other half of the Left — the Australian Manufacturing Workers' Union — and the Right faction, known as "Progressive Labor".
Cook had split the Left, even without the support of his own union, and forced Sanderson to back out of her bid to lead the state.
Both sides sold the quick resolution to who would fill McGowan's shoes as a good thing.
Labor friction
But the scars created by that division could linger for much longer, and might not even play out until sometime down the road.
The cabinet reshuffle that Cook's promotion will come with could help settle any disgruntled MPs, but preselecting candidates for the next election also presents an opportunity for factional tempers to flare.
"That was largely suppressed under McGowan because he was so dominant," politics professor at Notre Dame University, Martin Drum, said.
"With his departure, the factions will be seeking to assert themselves, and there is some underlying tension perhaps within the Left faction because of them splitting over Roger Cook and Amber-Jade Sanderson."
In a post-McGowan world, it might also be harder for people to overlook some of the government's big problems in areas like health, housing and juvenile justice without the legendary status of the state's COVID premier to distract from them.
For their part, the Liberals are optimistic they will be able to capitalise on that opportunity.
"We've illustrated this through our reform process, which will see candidates selected by branches with the new plebiscite model, and new efforts to attract candidates to all state positions," leader Libby Mettam said on Wednesday.
"There is no doubt that the Liberal Party, together with the National Party, have been working very hard since 2021."
Liberals struggling with 'lack of resources'
Even so, the Liberals are starting from a much weaker base after their electoral obliteration.
"One of the problems of the scale of defeat was the lack of resources the Liberals now have to win the next election," Green said.
"The loss of seats, the loss of staffing positions and loss of funding, which the dominant Labor Party's been able to reap in the donations, they all leave a weakened Liberal Party.
"That's why it's so tough for them to win the next election. First off, they've got to undo Labor's lead, but they don't have a lot of resources to work with."
At the very least, the expectation they will be able to claw back what was once Liberal heartland in places like Nedlands, Churchlands, Bateman and Carine is growing more and more certain.
Seats like that were once considered safe for the party, having never before fallen into Labor hands.
The road back to government
Now, they are held on margins between 0.8 per cent for Churchlands, through to 6.7 per cent in Bateman.
"Those sorts of seats they really should be winning and they would be expected to be picking up those seats," Dr Drum said.
"It would not be out of the question for them to win back at least 15 seats if they got their act together and produced a really cohesive, unified policy structure and personnel ahead of the 2025 election."
Dr Drum's expectation of what one of the best-case scenarios for the Liberals could be is much higher than what it was even a week ago.
"The expectations for the Liberals, every analyst in the country would be expecting them to perform better without Mark McGowan there," he said.
"Realistically, double figures would have been an optimistic one, and now I think it could be 15, could be upwards of 15, seats that they could win."
Even still, that's a long way from the 30 seats needed to form government.
What is maybe the most realistic path then for the Liberals as it stands would be to use 2025 as a launching pad to grow their base.
Then, they would be able to launch a proper challenge to form government at the following election in 2029.
There are some big opportunities ahead for both Labor and the Liberals, but for now they are just that.
The void created by the departure of the state's most popular premier is immense and will have to be filled with something.
It's up to the Liberals to decide if that's them.