Perth's affluent coastal suburbs and the northern mortgage belt have always been considered safe blue seats, but now the Liberal party has a fight on its hands in the two electorates as new candidates reshuffle the decks.
Key points:
- The Liberals need to fight to retain Pearce and Curtin, an expert says
- A well-funded independent candidate is the main challenger in Curtin
- Labor has set its sights on the seat of Pearce in Perth's north
In years gone by, the Liberal Party would have already banked victories in Curtin and Pearce and turned their campaign attention to more marginal contests.
But the emergence of a well-funded independent in Curtin and the loss of Christian Porter's profile in Pearce have some expecting a much closer race.
"These are not normal times for the Liberal Party, it's got a fight in Pearce, and it's got a fight in Curtin," said political analyst Peter Kennedy.
"If it were to lose Curtin, it would be a very black day for the Liberal party."
Perth's leafy suburbs always bled blue
For generations, Curtin has been the jewel in the federal Liberals' WA crown, covering 98 square-kilometres of Perth's most affluent coastal and riverside suburbs.
"We'll be voting Liberal for sure, it's in our blood, it's blue blood," said one Cottesloe retiree earlier this week.
Curtin is named after Labor Prime Minister, John Curtin, but the ALP has never held the seat.
Former foreign minister Julie Bishop won the seat in 1998 for the Liberal party and held it for 21 years until her retirement from politics in 2019.
Ms Bishop handed the reins to lawyer and Notre Dame University Vice-Chancellor Celia Hammond, who comfortably held onto the seat despite a 6.4 per cent swing against the Liberals in Curtin at the last election.
Ms Hammond has been Curtin's MP for the last three years and is hoping to win again.
But a lot has happened in those three years, including the state Liberal party being obliterated at the 2021 state election, which was a landslide victory for Labor.
State seats, such as Nedlands, which had previously been considered deep in Liberal territory, were won by Labor.
Cottesloe, which makes up a large part of Curtin, was retained by David Honey as the only metropolitan lower house seat the Liberals won, the other being Vasse retained by Libby Mettam.
But WA has a history of going in different directions at the state and federal levels.
Labor is running Mosman Park businessman Yannick Spencer as its candidate in Curtin but his campaign has been notably low-profile.
Outside of a Facebook page with 190 followers, there are few signs that Mr Spencer is even contesting the seat.
The biggest threat to the Liberal Party in Curtin is the well-resourced and well-connected independent candidate, Kate Chaney.
Ms Chaney is running on a platform of action on climate change and political integrity in Canberra.
A former manager at Wesfarmers and a director at Anglicare, Ms Chaney has a strong profile locally and family ties to politics and the Liberal Party.
Ms Chaney's grandfather, Fred Chaney, was a cabinet minister to Robert Menzies and her uncle, Fred Chaney Junior, was a WA senator and deputy Liberal leader to Malcolm Fraser.
Kate Chaney is one of 21 independent candidates being backed by political movement Climate200.
The cohort has been dubbed the 'teal' independents for the colour used in their uniform campaign material, a shade between blue and green.
Ms Chaney's website lists almost $600,000 donated to her campaign so far and of that, $250,000 is attributed to three separate donations from Climate200.
She also boasts 500-plus volunteers supporting her campaign.
There seems to be a Kate Chaney poster on just about every street throughout the electorate and on many occasions, they sit beside signs for the Liberal Party and Celia Hammond, but Ms Chaney's far outnumber them.
Palmer United Party advertising can also be spotted on main streets, along with a smattering of Greens posters, but there is barely a hint of Labor red in sight anywhere.
If she were to win Curtin, Ms Chaney has said she would be willing to work with either major party in the event of a hung parliament.
Battle for Curtin to come down to preferences, expert says
She said she would base her support on the willingness of either party to negotiate on issues including the climate and integrity in politics, but did not consider doing any preference deals with the major parties.
"My how-to-vote card will have a 1 next to my name, and then it will just say in big writing, 'Please number every other box in your order of preference'," she told the ABC.
Peter Kennedy suspects preferences will play an important role in Curtin.
"The fight in Curtin won't be won by an absolute majority, it will be won on preferences," he said.
"That's where the position of the Labor Party, the Greens, the Palmer Party, the minor parties generally, will be absolutely important."
"How the preferences flow once the first preferences have been counted will decide whether it's Kate Chaney or Celia Hammond who wins the seat, there's not going to be much in it."
The major parties at this stage have declined to make preference deals with independents.
Pearce to be won on local jobs and health care
Federal Labor believes the WA seat of Pearce, held by the Liberals since the 1980s, is a prize for the taking.
The north metro seat plays host to some of the fastest-growing areas in Australia, with an average age of only 32, and more than 40 per cent of the population born overseas.
The candidates for the major parties are both from Wanneroo Council.
Mayor Tracey Roberts said if she won for Labor, she'd bring years of experience to Canberra.
"Knowledge, experience, funding, I've done the flight across to Canberra a number of times, literally begging for funding for this area," she said.
"There's one thing that I am, and that's a very loud voice.
"I run my campaigns and myself with strength and dignity."
Ms Roberts said that among the issues were health care, a need for sporting facilities for kids, and cost of living.
"That's why we're very strong on local employment," Ms Roberts said.
She said an Albanese-led Labor government, if elected, would help create jobs in the area.
"That ensures people will be able to live and work and not have to travel too far.
"Many doctors are having to stop bulk billing because of some of the cuts that've happened, then that puts more pressure on the hospitals."
She said there were more than 215,000 people in Pearce, representing a rapid growth since the 2016 census.
Liberal candidate and Wanneroo Councillor Linda Aitken identified similar issues, but believed the Morrison government had the answers.
"But the biggest issue is health care – getting to health care, adequate health care.
"Being able to get to work; congestion is a big issue, and local jobs so people don't have to travel far to get to work."
She said that working as a theatre nurse, she knew what it was like to help people when they were at their most vulnerable.
"I hold people's hands as they go under the anaesthetic. I know when people are feeling at their most vulnerable in the community, when they're upset.
"I want to celebrate their success as well.
"I've brought up four children, my husband and I have run a small business, I have two grandchildren and I've experienced a lot of life."
Ms Aitken was with Prime Minister Scott Morrison when he went to the Wanneroo BMX Club in Pearsall, ahead of an announcement from Attorney General Michaelia Cash of $1.6 million in funding support.
The very fact that the Prime Minister chose Pearce as one of the seats to visit while in WA shows the Liberals believe it's facing a real threat.
Businesses lack skilled staff, infrastructure
There's a diverse range of businesses in Pearce, ranging from tourism to manufacturing, heavy industry, science and technology, and fruit and vegetable growers.
The President of the Wanneroo Business Association, Nigel Santa Maria, said operators and owners would be looking for a party that could help address shortages of skills and products.
"Supply chain issues are causing a lot of business disruption at the moment," he said.
"In the construction industry, we're starting to see some cracks, there's still quite a bit of pain out there.
"In terms of hospitality and tourism, you see a lot of vacancies [for staff].
"With the migrant workers, it will take some time to filter down, before we see some real traction in that space, in trying to fill some of these skill gaps and shortages."
While fuel price cuts were welcome, this was only short term, and NBN was a regular concern.
"Whether it's working from home, working in the office or factory, there needs to be more infrastructure placed towards the NBN because that is a major disruption for businesses currently."
Pearce will we hard to hold, pundit says
Peter Kennedy has said the loss of Christian Porter meant it would be very hard for the Liberal Party to hold Pearce.
"He not only enjoyed a very high profile, but last time, ran a very strong campaign," he said.
"And in fact, increased his majority when Labor had some hope of winning the seat.
"This time, there's no Christian Porter, the resources the Liberal Party had last time aren't there."
The boundaries of the seat had changed due to a redistribution.
"Even after the latest redistribution, it was still reasonably solid for the Liberal Party," Mr Kennedy said.
"The latest redistribution at least on paper gives the Liberals a useful advantage."
Peter Kennedy believed Tracey Roberts, as the mayor, had an edge.
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