The towns of Donald and Charlton, in Victoria's central north-west, are both in the Buloke Shire, have populations of about 1,000 and are economically reliant on broadacre agriculture.
Key points:
- The towns of Donald and Charlton could electorates under an upcoming redistribution
- Charlton is in favour but Donald is not
- The change could spell bad news for MP Louise Staley
But their progress associations have very different views on which electorate they belong in.
At the moment both towns are in the ultra-marginal seat of Ripon, but under the Electoral Boundaries Commission's (EBC) proposed changes to state electorates, they would be put into the Mildura electorate of independent MP Ali Cupper.
John McConville, the president of the Donald 2000 a committee, which works to attract industry and business to the town, says Ripon MP and shadow treasurer Louise Staley – who holds the set by a margin of 0.02% – has "a good relationship" with Donald.
"We needed new roading on our industrial estate just out of town and that was completed recently," Mr McConville said.
"We've had good success revamping child care and kinder centres here with state government funding.
"Being marginal is to our best advantage."
Fear of being lost in line
Ms Cupper's seat is also marginal – she beat Nationals member Peter Crisp by 0.34% in 2018 – but Mr McConville doubts the benefits for Donald will be the same.
"If you're in politics you will aim at the majority of voters, and the Buloke Shire is a minimal population (compared to Mildura).
"But I'm happy to be proven wrong."
But Charlton Forum president Bruce Gardner is much more optimistic about the prospect of being put in Mildura.
"I think there will still be money thrown at us, Ms Cupper being an independent," he said.
"But I tend to think we will swing back to the Nationals because this area is such a stronghold.
"We've done very well with Louise, but at the moment we are split between two regions, so to have it all under the one banner is important."
In a statement, Ms Cupper said bringing all of Buloke Shire into the one electorate would "help with advocacy".
Biggest seat to get bigger
Elsewhere, the EBC has recommend the Wimmera electorate of Lowan – already Victoria's largest – be expanded to encompass Stawell, in the Northern Grampians, and Mortlake, in the Moyne Shire.
The proposal has raised Mortlake resident Jill Parker's eyebrows.
"It seems to be a fairly different demographic to me," she said.
"I don't think we’d have much in common with the northern parts of Lowan — Mortlake is more of a grazing area.
"We do have a bit to do with Hamilton (the second largest town in the Lowan electorate).
"I find it interesting — I’m not sure we will benefit, but we will see."
Meanwhile in eastern Victoria, Latrobe City Council mayor Sharon Gibson is disappointed the town of Moe has not been included in the Morwell electorate.
Ms Gibson lobbied for Moe to be added to Morwell, because it is the only part of the council in a separate electorate.
She says the seat of Morwell got significant funding last state election, but none went to Moe.
"So that only fuels, the anger and concern from the residents of Moe,” Ms Gibson said.
"So that has proved really problematic, and, understandably, the people wanted be treated as a whole with the rest of Latrobe city."
The seat of Gippsland South could pick up the town of Inverloch from Bass, while the seat of Narracan's population has grown.
Nar Nar Goon and Bunyip may be moved into the Bass electorate.
Marginal seat could change hands
Deakin University politics lecturer Geoff Robinson said the boundaries needed to change to ensure fair representation across the state.
"Obviously, a lot of population changes are going on, particularly in Melbourne, so boundaries have to change to ensure the seats are fairly equal in size," he said.
"Population growth in one area usually leads to cascading effects that can work their way all across the state, sometimes."
Dr Robinson said a number of Liberal MPs in the south-west, Ms Staley in particular, would be concerned by the proposed new boundaries.
In addition to losing Donald, Charlton and Stawell, Ripon is poised to gain voters near the Eureka electorate, formerly known as Wendouree.
"You'd imagine that Labor will try hard to win Ripon again and they'll be advantaged by the new boundaries," Dr Robinson said.
"You might imagine maybe that Louise Staley's recent comments about Dan Andrews's accident give Labor more motivation to knock her off."
Dr Robinson said he expected the Liberal Party to rally hard against the changes in that electorate.
"I'd imagine they'll really focus on Ripon and trying to reverse the proposed changes," he said.
"But the problem is that numbers have to come out of Polwarth — they have to go somewhere and that has a knock-on effect."
EBC senior research officer Paul Thornton-Smith said the proposed boundaries were being exhibited for the next month for those who wanted to leave feedback, and there could be public hearings for people to voice any concerns directly.
The final boundaries will be revealed in late October and will apply at the next state election in late 2022.